Photo : R Skywalker/ mil.in.ua
18 May 2023, Thursday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #518
War in Ukraine: Day 448
By Padmashree Anandhan
War on the Ground
On 16 May, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry announced in its Twitter on joining NATO’s Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence. Ukraine will come under the cyber protection, training, education, and countermeasures from the NATO cyber defence specialists.
On 17 May, Ukrinform reported on Ukraine’s Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal statement from the Council of Europe Summit. At the summit, he discussed how the agenda aims to hold Russia accountable for the damage caused in Ukraine. He also mentioned that the formation of an international tribunal will aid in exposing Russia's political and military crimes. Shmyhal confirmed the creation of the register to keep record of the damage inflicted by Russia. He said: “Our goal is to create a comprehensive compensation mechanism that will ensure that Russia pays full compensation to Ukraine in accordance with international law.”
On 17 May, Ukrinform reported on Ukraine’s Armed Forces spokesperson's report on the Bakhmut situation. The UAF has noticed that Russian forces are gathering in the regions of Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Marinka. The areas of Bakhmut and Marinka seem to be the primary points of focus. The area was struck by S-300 air defence, 40 attacks from multiple rocket launchers, resulting in civilian and infrastructural damage.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 17 May, RT reported on Russia’s first successful trial of self-propelled howitzer, 2S43 Malva. This was confirmed by the Director of Uralvagonzavod. According to the report, the weapon is seen as a substitute for the French-made Caesar howitzers. It has a 152-mm gun that can target a wide range of areas. Earlier, T-14 Armata tanks were deployed in the front line which prompted Ukraine to demand for more weapons from the West.
On 17 May, RT reported on South Africa’s ground forces Commander visit to Moscow amid US’s accusation of it supporting Russia through arms. The visit was seen as a “goodwill visit” by the Russian army and the Commander added that it was planned to discuss on bilateral arrangement.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 17 May, the Federal Ministry of Defence in Germany has announced that they will not be joining the coalition formed by the UK and the Netherlands. It welcomed the move to help boosting Ukraine’s defence; however, since Germany does not have the technology or can provide training on fighter jets, it will not be able to be part of the coalition. This follows after the UK and the Netherlands agreed to form an international coalition to provide training to the Ukraine pilots to handle the fighter jets. On the other hand, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda expressed Poland’s support to join UK’s coalition in training Ukrainian crew for F-16 fighter jets.
On 17 May, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan tweeted on the extension of the grain deal. The deal is extended for two months till 18 July and Erdogan assured take efforts to carry out the next extension. He also confirmed that Russia would not bar Turkey’s ships from entering Mykolaiv and Olvia. Erdogan said: “I wish that this decision, which is vital for the smooth operation of global food supply chains and especially for facilitating access to grain for countries in need, will be beneficial to all parties.”
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the war
On 17 May, RT reported on South Africa's Foreign Ministry announcement on the scheduled visit of six Presidents from Africa to Moscow and Ukraine in June. The visit is aimed at promoting negotiation between the two to attain consent for a ceasefire. South Africa’s Cooperation Director-General Zane Dangor said: “We have also engaged with other actors, including the US. There is general support for this initiative that President Ramaphosa announced.”
On 15 May, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan raised concerns over the break in its shipment and logistics due to efforts to vent from sanctions imposed from the Ukraine war. He states that due to the sanctions imposed by the West, Armenia has been obligated to create newer channels for trade. He claimed that despite being transparent and cooperative with the US, the EU, and Russia, Armenia has not been able to afford to follow the sanctions.
References
“MFA of Ukraine,” Twitter, 16 May 2023
“Shmyhal in Reykjavik: All Russian war criminals will be brought to justice,” Ukrinform, 17 May 2023
“Register of Ukraine's losses from Russian aggression created at CoE summit,” Ukrinform, 17 May 2023
“Sanctions are Armenia’s red lines, and we are clearly telling this to the Russians – PM Pashinyan,” armenpress.am, 15 May 2023
“Ukraine updates: Grain deal extended for another two months,” Deutsche Welle, 17 May 2023
“UK, German defense ministers: Decision on providing Ukraine with F-16s depends on United States,” Ukrinform, 17 May 2023
“Duda: Poland ready to support training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s,” Ukrinform, 17 May 2023
“Ülkemizin gayretleri, Rus dostlarımızın desteği ve Ukraynalı dostlarımızın katkılarıyla Karadeniz Tahıl Koridoru Anlaşması'nın 2 ay daha uzatılmasına karar verildi.,” Recep Tayyip Erdogan/Twitter, 17 May 2023
“Heavy fighting going on for Bakhmut – Ukraine's General Staff,” Ukrinform, 17 May 2023
“South Africa’s army chief visits Moscow,” RT, 17 May 2023
“Africa to send six presidents to Moscow and Kiev,” RT, 17 May 2023
“Russia fields new artillery system,” RT, 17 May 2023
IN BRIEF
By Rishika Yadav, and Sreeja JS
GERMANY
Defence Minister declines role in fighter jet coalition for Ukraine
On 17 May, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius remarked during a joint press conference with UK Defence Minister Ben Wallace in Berlin: “Germany lacks the necessary planes, capabilities, and expertise to participate in a coalition for supplying fighter jets to Ukraine.” The UK, along with the Netherlands, announced their efforts to establish an international coalition for Ukraine to acquire F-16 fighter jets from allies. Previously, Berlin, Washington, and London had declined to provide their own fighter jets to Kyiv. (“Germany doesn’t have capabilities to be in coalition to supply jets to Kiev — minister,” TASS, 17 May 2023)
HUNGARY
Foreign Minister threatens to block EU military support over blacklisting of its bank
On 17 May, Hungary's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto stated: “Hungary will veto the next tranche of EU military aid for Ukraine and any new sanctions against Russia unless Ukraine removes Hungarian bank OTP from its list of war sponsors.” The allocation of 500 million euros from the European Peace Facility for military aid to Ukraine has been delayed by Hungary. While the initial demand was for funding guarantees for other regions, the primary reason for the delay is Ukraine's decision to blacklist OTP bank. (Boldizsar Gyori, “Hungary to block EU military aid fund for Ukraine unless Kyiv takes OTP bank off blacklist,” Reuters, 17 May 2023)
RUSSIA
Dmitry Medvedev sparks controversy on the Baltic States and Poland
On 16 May, Russia’s former Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev sparked controversy by referring to the Baltic states as "our" provinces and labeling Poland as "temporarily occupied." Medvedev's comments came in response to French President Emmanuel Macron's statement that Russia had lost its geopolitical standing. He criticized NATO's presence in Poland and accused Europe of being subservient to the "perverted whims of Americans." The Ukraine conflict has increased inflation across Europe, impacting food and energy prices. However, a Eurobarometer poll has shown that most citizens of the EU still endorse the bloc's aid to Ukraine. (Joshua Askew, “Russia's Dmitry Medvedev claims Baltic countries belong to Russia,” Euronews, 17 May 2023)
THE UK
Ford, JLR joins Stellantis to demand a renegotiation of the Brexit deal
On 17 May, Ford, Jaguar Land Rover, and Stellantis are urging the UK government to reexamine the regulations regarding the origin of parts in the Brexit agreement. This is necessary to prevent the current risks faced by the British automotive sector. The current post-Brexit rules require 40 per cent of electric vehicle parts to be sourced in the UK or EU if they are to be sold on the other side of the channel without a 10 per cent tariff. The proportion is likely to rise to 45 per cent in 2024 as electric vehicle batteries are still imported from Asia. According to Stellantis, the tariffs would make vehicles manufactured in the country and the EU fall foul of the rules. The company would also be forced to shut down some of its factories in the UK, putting at risk about 800,000 jobs. Ford added that this rule would add unnecessary costs for customers who want to go green. JLR said that the rules are unrealistic and counterproductive and called for hasty action to delay the rules. ( Jasper Jolly and Mark Sweney, “Ford, Vauxhall owner and JLR call for UK to renegotiate Brexit deal,” The Guardian, 17 May 2023)
UKRAINE
European leaders establish 'Register of Damage' for Ukraine
On 17 May, leaders from European countries approved the establishment of a "Register of Damage" to document the destruction caused by Russian forces in Ukraine, following a Council of Europe (CoE) summit held in Iceland. The register aims to hold Russia accountable for the damages and provide justice for the victims of the conflict. Forty countries have already signed onto the initiative, with three others finalizing their internal procedures to join. Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, highlighted the importance of the registry in holding Russian occupiers accountable for war crimes and seeking reparations for the extensive harm caused to Ukraine. The register received support from other leaders within the CoE, including British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The United States, Canada, and Japan also expressed their endorsement. (“Council of Europe approves Register of Damage against Russia,” Deutsche Welle, 17 May 2023)
UK and Germany leaves decision on supplying fighter jets to Ukraine on the US
On 17 May, Germany's Defence Minister Boris Pistorius stated: “The decision to provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine would be up to the White House,” after a meeting with his British counterpart Ben Wallace. The Ukrainian military desires F-16s due to their destructive power and cost-effectiveness. Pistorius emphasized that Germany lacked the necessary capabilities and would not actively participate in such a coalition. Similarly, the UK does not possess F-16s but is collaborating with the Netherlands to establish an international "jet coalition" to assist Ukraine. (“Germany and UK say US must decide on fighter jets to Ukraine,” Deutsche Welle, 17 May 2023)
REGIONAL
EU adopts draft MoU to enhance cooperation with UK
On 17 May, the European Union’s executive body officially approved a draft memorandum of understanding (MoU) aimed at facilitating closer collaboration between financial regulators in the UK and the EU. This agreement, however, falls short of granting market access. The UK's financial sector lost its previous unrestricted entry to the EU market, following Brexit, raising concerns about London's status as a global financial hub. The MoU, once politically endorsed by EU member states, will establish a joint EU-UK Financial Regulatory Forum, similar to the one already existing with the United States. Importantly, the MoU does not address market access or pre-determine equivalence decisions. (Huw Jones, “EU pushes forward with post-Brexit forum for EU, UK financial regulators,” Reuters, 18 May 2023)
Black Sea grain deal extended for another two months
On 17 May, BBC News reported that the Black Sea grain deal was extended for another two months through negotiation by both the UN and Turkey, despite concerns that Russia could pull out of the pact. The deal was first agreed upon in July 2022 against the fears of global food shortages due to the war in Ukraine, and it has been renewed several times. Through this deal, more than 30 metric tonnes of grain have left Ukraine to the world’s poorest countries. Russia had briefly withdrawn from the deal in November 2022, accusing Ukraine of attacking its fleet in Crimea, but rejoined a few days later. (“Ukraine conflict: Black Sea grain deal extended for two months,” BBC News, 17 May 2023)
CLIMATE CHANGE
Southern Europe braces for severe drought and worst agricultural yields
On 18 May, Reuters reported that Southern Europe is preparing for a summer plagued by intense drought, as rising temperatures and diminishing rainfall continue to worsen the situation. Spain and other regions are already experiencing water shortages, with farmers expecting their worst harvests in years. Groundwater reserves have been depleted due to consecutive years of drought, resulting in bone-dry soils in Spain and southern France. Low river and reservoir levels also pose a threat to hydropower production. Spain has requested emergency assistance from the EU, highlighting the magnitude of the drought's consequences. Despite long-standing climate change forecasts, preparations to mitigate the impact of drought have been insufficient. (Kate Abnett, “Southern Europe braces for climate change-fuelled summer of drought,” Reuters, 18 May 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
Academics urge European powers to stand for democracy in Tunisia
On 17 May, according to The Guardian, 70 academics urged the European leaders to stand by and support pro-democracy Tunisians to revive the declining democracy in Tunisia via a letter in part collated by his daughter, Soumaya Ghannoushi. This letter comes in response to the arrest of Rached Ghannouchi, the opposition leader of Tunisia, on 17 April 2023 and his subsequent sentencing to a year in jail on 15 May. The letter further stressed the precarious condition of the opposition leaders, who are either arrested or constantly threatened for opposing the president and the undemocratic government. At present, the EU is seeking to avoid political and economic collapse in Tunisia, fearing this would increase the number of people leaving the country for Italy. (Patrick Wintour, “European leaders urged to help Tunisians resist assault on democracy,” The Guardian, 17 May 2023)